Numbers and Voters and Polls, Oh My


After a poorly organized and lack luster voter turnout in Nevada Mitt Romney was deemed the official winner early this morning. Mr. Romney easily took the state with 50 percent of the vote but few see this as a strong signal for the Romney campaign.  Although the Republican primary is looking like a one-man race Mr. Romney’s chances in November are looking bleaker than ever.

It appears the enthusiasm for Mr. Romney is waning and if he does nothing to turn this trend around it is unclear if he will inspire enough voters to come out for the general election.  The first three primary states did have greater voter turnout this time than in 2008 but both Florida and Nevada saw sharp declines.  1.6 million Floridians showed up to the polls this year, which is down from 1.9 million in 2008.  With Florida being a key swing state, a poor voter turnout is good news for President Obama.  Voter turnout in the upcoming states will give us a better idea if there really is a lack of enthusiasm in the Party.

Voter turnout in the primaries may only be a small indicator for the general election but recent polls also favor the President.  The most recent Washington Post general election poll has Mr. Obama at 51 percent and Mr. Romney at 45 percent.  Those numbers only increase in favor for the President when he is matched up against Gingrich.  Also the President’s approval rating has increased to 50 percent.

This along with the better than expected jobs report, which came out last week, are all indications that Mr. Obama will win a second term.

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